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Fantasy basketball streamers and NBA betting cheat sheet for Monday

The ESPN fantasy and betting cheat sheet is your pregame destination for our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge

By Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Stock Watch: The 76ers couldn’t get their offense going against Toronto last night, but Matisse Thybulle (6.4% available) certainly made his presence felt defensively, collecting three steals and four blocks. Thybulle leads the league in steal percentage and sits 13th in block percentage. He should prove busy against Miami’s collection of perimeter scorers.

Believe In Bruce: Bruce Brown (available in 80% of ESPN leagues) has been an impactful fantasy option and tonight the Nets a banged up Jazz team on the second night of a back-to-back. Brown should be a viable asset in all formats. He’s been good for basically 15 PPG, 10 rebounds + assists and two steals + blocks all month while playing 33 minutes a night. He’s very clearly a part of Brooklyn’s offense and in games with Kyrie Irving out, he deserves to be locked into lineups.

Bey Day: With Villanova shining in the NCAA tourney, it’s fitting to highlight a former Wildcat who just scored a career-high 51 points this past Thursday. Sharpshooter Saddiq Bey (24% available) should continue to see his usage and offensive production swell with Jerami Grant (knee) off the floor. Marvin Bagley III (49%) has produced nearly nine more DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Grant off the court, aiding his case to bounce back from a foul-riddled game over the weekend.

2 Related

Follow Your Hart: The Pistons’ porous defense has allowed 42.7 DraftKings PPG to shooting guards this season, the seventh-highest rate in the league. Josh Hart (39% available), meanwhile, has averaged 28.6 PPG to go with strong peripherals over his past five games.

Down With KCP: The Wizards don’t have much perimeter creation on the roster in the wake of Bradley Beal’s injury and Spencer Dinwiddie’s departure. This void has fueled some fantasy production for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (80% available), who has averaged 16.8 PPG with 2.6 3PM and 1.2 steals over his past nine games. KCP lands a choice matchup against a Rockets team that has yielded 43.2 DraftKings PPG to shooting guards, the fourth-highest allowance in the league

Game of the Night

Line: Heat (-1)
Moneyline: Heat (-120), 76ers (+100)
Total: 216.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 214 points
BPI Win%: Heat (50.4%)

Key players ruled out: Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo

Questionable: Caleb Martin (knee), Jimmy Butler (ankle)

Notable: The James Harden era in Philadelphia opened with three straight covers and all three of those games went over the total. In the eight games since, however, the 76ers are just 2-5-1 ATS and unders are 4-3-1.

Fantasy Streamer: Max Strus (98.7% available) has quietly put together a strong last 10 days. He has averaged 16.0 PPG (47.8 FG%, 100 FT%, 46.2 3P%), 4.5 3PG, 4.0 RPG and 1.8 APG in 24.3 MPG off the bench in his past four outings. He has the potential for a larger role on Monday, with Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin both questionable and Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo both out. — André Snellings

Best bet: Heat -1 over 76ers. This matchup is a toss-up. There are still a lot of unknowns for tonight, but some things work in the Heat’s favor. The Heat come in as the more rested team with only one game since last Tuesday. Meanwhile, Joel Embiid was a game-time decision yesterday and though he played, he had his worst scoring game in more than a month. I like the fresher Heat team to pull this one out. — Snellings

Breaking down the rest of the slate

Line: Hornets (-6)
Moneyline: Hornets (-250), Pelicans (+205)
Total: 234.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.5 points
BPI Win%: Hornets (60.5%)

Key players ruled out: none

Notable: The Hornets have covered each of their past four games and have lost just four of their past 15 ATS.

Best bet: Jonas Valanciunas over 31.5 points + rebounds. Valanciunas has recorded four consecutive double-doubles and eight consecutive games with 10 or more points. As a team, the Hornets are ranked 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Centers have also dominated them this season, averaging 25.5 points per game and 17.3 rebounds per game. — Eric Moody

Line: Cavaliers (-6)
Moneyline: Cavaliers (-250), Lakers (+205)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.5 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (67/6%)

Key players ruled out: Rajon Rondo

Questionable: LeBron James (knee), Wayne Ellington (illness), Talen Horton-Tucker (ankle)

Notable: The Lakers have been tough to watch for a while now, but over bettors have cashed in five of their past seven games.

Best Bet: LeBron James over 44.5 points + assists + rebounds. The last eight games have seen James average 35.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 6.0 APG. James is questionable with left knee soreness for tonight’s game, but I would be surprised if he did not face his former team in Cleveland. In 17 career games against the Cavaliers, he has averaged 29 PPG, 7.2 APG, and 7.0 RPG. — Moody

Best bet: Darius Garland over 38.5 points + assists + rebounds. In the month of March, Garland has been outstanding. In 10 games, he has averaged 26 PPG, 11 APG, 3.6 RPG, and 39.6 MPG. With the Lakers allowing point guards to average 25 PPG, 9.0 APG, and 7.0 RPG this season, Garland has a favorable matchup. — Moody

Line: Pistons (-7)
Moneyline: Pistons (-300), Blazers (+240)
Total: 223 points
BPI Projected Total: 220.5 points
BPI Win%: Pistons (73.8%)

Key players ruled out: Jerami Grant, Hamidou Diallo, Frank Jackson

Notable: Valentine’s Day. That was the last time the Pistons lost ATS (12-0-2).

Best bet: Pistons -7. As alluded to, the Pistons are undefeated against the spread for more than a month. But, that just reflects their surprisingly strong play on the court of late, as a young team that seems to be putting it together. Cade Cunningham returned this weekend as well, giving them a boost. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers have lost 10 of their last 11 games with an average scoring margin of -23.6 PPG. — Snellings

Line: Nets (-1)
Moneyline: Nets (-120), Jazz (+100)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.5 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (53.8%)

Key players ruled out: Kyrie Irving, LaMarcus Aldridge, Ben Simmons

Donovan Mitchell is having a career year in Utah. Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

Notable: The Nets are just 1-6 ATS over their past seven played at home (five of those seven have gone over the total).

Line: Bulls (-4)
Moneyline: Bulls (-180), Raptors (+155)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (50.7%)

Key players ruled out: none

Notable: Six of seven and nine of 11 Chicago games have gone under the total.

Best bet: Raptors +4. I got burned on Friday by picking the Raptors to beat the Lakers, but that game was in Toronto. The Raptors have been road warriors of late, winners of six straight on the road with an 8.3 point scoring margin. That stretch includes wins in Phoenix, Denver, and last night’s win in Philadelphia over the 76ers. The Bulls come in having lost eight of their past 10 games, including three in a row, with an average scoring margin of -8.1 PPG during that stretch. BPI also gives Raptors the small edge outright. — Snellings

Line: Wizards (-5)
Moneyline: Wizards (-200), Rockets (+170)
Total: 234.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236 points
BPI Win%: Wizards (61.7%)

Key players ruled out: none

Notable: The Wizards have seen nine of their past 10 games go over the total (they’ve covered two-in-a-row after losing five straight against the spread).

Line: Celtics (-13.5)
Moneyline: Celtics (-1100), Thunder (+700)
Total: 216.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 220 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (90%)

Key players ruled out: none

Notable: Four straight Thunder games have gone over the total and they’ve managed to cover the number in three of those games.

Line: Mavericks (-3.5)
Moneyline: Mavericks (-160), Timberwolves (+140)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 228 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (52%)

Key players ruled out: none

Questionable: Karl-Anthony Towns

Notable: Think the total is low? Back the ‘Wolves. The Mavericks have failed to cover each of the past three games that have gone over.

Analytics Edge

BPI highest projected totals

1. Washington Wizards (119.7 points)
2. Boston Celtics (116.7 points)
3. Houston Rockets (116.2 points)

BPI lowest projected totals

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (102.9 points)
2. Philadelphia 76ers (106.9 points)
3. Miami Heat (107.0 points)

BPI top probability to win (straight up)

1. Boston Celtics (88.9%)
2. Detroit Pistons (73.1%)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (68.7%)

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